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Encyclopedia · simulation · risk

Monte Carlo simulation

Generating thousands of alternative histories from your returns to read the distribution, not the anecdote.

One backtest is one draw from an unknown distribution. Monte Carlo simulation re-generates that history thousands of times — by resampling returns (bootstrap, block bootstrap) or by fitting a stochastic model (GARCH-filtered, Student's t, skewed-t) — and reads the resulting fan of equity paths: percentile bands, probability of hitting a ruin threshold, the depth of typical and extreme drawdowns.

Its honest use is at the size you actually intend to trade: tails scale non-linearly with leverage, and a strategy that survives 1 contract can carry meaningful ruin probability at 3. Its dishonest use is as decoration — a fan chart drawn from an overfit backtest simulates the overfit, not the strategy.

How VEEMAN computes it →

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